Quoted from the official website of the Doctor of Islamic Politics-Political Science, Mohammad Sheikhi, a doctoral student in the Department of Political Science at Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta (UMY), expressed his opinion on the consequences of President Trump’s decision to assassinate General Soleimani.
Following a U.S. drone strike at Baghdad airport early Friday morning, General Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, a special unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard responsible for Iran’s extraterritorial operations, and one of the most significant militia leaders of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (Al-Hashd Al-Sha’abi), Abu Mehdi al-Mohandes, along with several other militiamen, were killed.
This attack came after a U.S. Department of Defense contractor was killed and several U.S. and Iraqi soldiers were injured last week (December 27) following a rocket attack on a military base in Kirkuk.
After the attack, U.S. intelligence officials announced that Iran-backed militants carried out the strike and blamed Iran for the attack.
The strike was ordered directly by President Trump, and the United States has declared its intention to prevent planned attacks on U.S. diplomats and forces in Iraq by militants under the auspices of the Islamic Republic.
General Qasem Soleimani was the second most powerful figure in Iran after the Supreme Leader and one of the most influential military commanders in the Middle East.
Soleimani, apart from being a military genius and strategist who influenced the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, controlled Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East and Afghanistan.
He played a significant role in leading military operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
This move followed President Trump’s repeated calls for talks with Iran after the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal.
It would largely negate any negotiations between Iran and the United States and weaken advocates of negotiations with the U.S. within Iran.
On the other hand, this action, coupled with increasing U.S. economic sanctions against Iran, will lead to rising tensions in the Middle East. Iran’s response to this action could manifest in the short, medium, and long term.
In its first official response to the U.S. action, the Iranian government announced the end of its obligations under the nuclear agreement. This decision was made after the U.S. withdrawal from its nuclear deal with Iran and the imposition of heavy sanctions, preventing Iran from benefiting economically from the agreement. Ultimately, this Iranian decision could lead to the return of the Iranian nuclear issue to the United Nations Security Council.
The second immediate consequence of General Soleimani’s assassination is the increased influence of Iran in Iraq. Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iraq has become a battleground for competition between the U.S. and Iran.
The first sign of this influence is the push by Iranian allies in Iraq to expel U.S. forces from the country. On Sunday, January 5, 2020, the Iraqi Parliament called on the Iraqi government to end the presence of foreign troops in a non-binding resolution.
Although the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq faced opposition from Sunni and Kurdish groups, in the short term, Iranian allies’ influence on Iraq’s political and military developments will increase.
In this regard, Iran’s exponential power to mobilize millions of Iraqis and Iranians for General Soleimani’s funeral in several cities can be noted.
On the other hand, political developments in Iran and Iraq, especially public protests in recent months against ineffective governments, will be sidelined.
In the medium term, Iran is likely to take retaliatory measures. This action will likely be carried out by one of Iran’s regional allies in the Middle East. On the other hand, the return of terrorist groups to Iraq and Syria could be another consequence.
In this regard, Iran will intensify its fight against terrorist groups, and given the financial restrictions imposed by U.S. economic sanctions, any direct reaction from Iran to U.S. interests and forces, as well as all U.S. regional allies in the area, is expected. In other words, considering Iran’s influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, the start of conflicts could threaten the interests of the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East.
One aspect of this potential conflict is the disruption of the Middle East oil export process, a rise in global oil prices, and increased risks to maritime security in the Persian Gulf.
The end of this scenario could be a full-scale war if President Trump wins the next election and pressure on Iran continues.
